The off-ball linebacker class is almost as bad as the tight end crop is good
Just a week before the NFL Scouting Combine, the football world has a pretty solid idea of where players will go in the 2023 NFL Draft. Bowl and Shrine Bowl in front of NFL evaluators.
With the help of the Consensus Editorial Board, let’s try to figure out where the strongest and weakest positions (compared to the averages) are in this next draft class. To do this, we measured the preliminary value of individual job groups in the top 100 picks since 2011, when the rookie pay scale began and the quarterback position was later upgraded through cost-controlled contracts. . We’ve focused on the top 100 picks, as the Draft Day 3 picks are dice rolls (at best.)
Using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Trade Chart, a more accurate and modern version of the Jimmy Johnson Chart, we assigned position groups a value based on where their players were picked in the top 100. We can do the same with the players projected to go into the top 100 of this upcoming draft, based on the consensus editorial board, and measure the difference from the 12-year average. You can view this table below:
Expected mintage value for 2023
| Pos | Avg | 2023 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Avg | 2023 | Difference |
| THE | 4707 | 6671 | 41.74% |
| CC | 14387 | 18309 | 27.26% |
| EDGE | 16483 | 19136 | 16.09% |
| QC | 8938 | 9958 | 11.41% |
| iDL | 11261 | 11295 | 0.30% |
| S | 7539 | 6745 | -10.53% |
| LO | 20999 | 18015 | -14.21% |
| RB | 7321 | 6188 | -15.48% |
| WR | 15061 | 12541 | -16.73% |
| KG | 8831 | 6078 | -31.17% |
Strongest Position Groups
tight end
The strongest position group in this draft, at least relative to the averages, is the tight end. Three tight ends, Michael Mayer (Notre Dame), Dalton Kincaid (Utah) and Darnell Washington (Georgia) are in the conservation to get out of the board in the first round. Three others, Luke Musgrave (Oregon State), Tucker Kraft (South Dakota State) and Sam LaPorta (Iowa) are virtual locks to be drafted in the first three rounds of the draft.
No matter what type of tight end you are looking for, there is one available in this class. Mayer is your all-around guy, Kincaid is your lightest sleight-of-hand, Washington is your online bullying blocker, and Musgrave should light up Indianapolis with his measurables. Tight end was voted by APC readers as the Packers’ second biggest need this offseason, so it’s nice to hear the position group has a draft value 42% higher than the middle class. tight end in the top 100.
Cornerback
The Packers don’t have a big need at cornerback unless they get Rasul Douglas to safety and Keisean Nixon isn’t re-signed to play the slot. Eric Stokes and Jaire Alexander are expected to continue to hold their starting position as outside cornerbacks throughout 2023.
Still, the cornerback position is perhaps the highlight of the first round of this draft class. Christian Gonzalez (Oregon), Devon Witherspoon (Illinois) and Joey Porter (Penn State) are currently among the top 10 picks while Cam Smith (South Carolina), Kelee Ringo (Georgia), Emmanuel Forbes (Mississippi State) and Clark Phillips III ( Utah) are in the first round conversation.
A total of 16 cornerbacks are expected to be drafted to the top 100 picks according to the consensus committee’s latest update.
Edge Precipitator
This top class isn’t above and beyond the best in recent memory, unlike tight end and cornerback, but it’s still very solid and comes with a few star names. Will Anderson (Alabama) and Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) are the monster athletes in this class. Another 13 edge rushers are expected to come off the board in the first three rounds of the class, including seven players who are in the first round conversation.
Some notable players expected to be drafted on Day 2 of the draft are Keion White (Georgia Tech), Will McDonald (Iowa State) and Andre Carter (Army.) White is a converted tight end turned base end who transferred to Georgia Tech after dominating the Group of Five competition at Old Dominion. McDonald was one of the nation’s most accomplished passers during his time at Iowa State, but he’s slightly undersized for the NFL job. Carter will be the subject of many conversations heading into the draft, as the 6’7” linebacker may have to delay his NFL career depending on how his active duty is governed.
Groups of weakest positions
linebacker
You can find mock drafts this offseason where there isn’t a single off-ball linebacker caught in the first round. According to the consensus drafting board, there are only two linebackers ranked in the top 58 picks in this upcoming draft. Many Packers fans weren’t thrilled with Quay Walker’s 2022 campaign, but perhaps it was the right call to take a linebacker a year before this class to get a year of development under his belt.
The position also falls quickly past Trenton Simpson (Clemson) and Drew Sanders (Arkansas.) The third- and fourth-ranked linebackers on the consensus board, respectively, are Oregon’s Noah Sewell and Alabama’s Henry To’oto’o, who have both major question marks over their foot speed and coverage skills that can translate to modern NFL play.
RECIPIENT
He’s the one that’s going to hurt Packers fans the most: he’s not a great class of receiver. The limited receiver crop will only be exacerbated by the team’s perceived size preference for 200-pound pass catchers, which should eliminate names like USC’s Jordan Addison and Boston College’s Zay Flowers.
Last year was probably class to pick up a receiver for Green Bay and they ended up drafting three. Unfortunately, those three 2022 picks now sit atop the Packers’ depth chart for next season with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb set for free agency.
There’s still talent in this class, but with Green Bay’s size specs, they’re going to have to pick their spots. Two names I would highlight are SMU’s Rashee Rice and Wake Forest’s AT Perry, pass catchers that I personally like and fit the prototype “Packers receiver”.
To come back
Green Bay could be in the market for a running back in 2023, but that’s low on the list of needs. Aaron Jones’ reworked contract means the team will carry a cap of $12.4 million in 2024 if the team chooses to vacate him next offseason. AJ Dillon, the team’s number two fullback, is in the final season of his rookie contract, however.
Bijan Robinson (Texas) is the crown jewel of the running back class and Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama) earns comparisons to Alvin Kamara as a first-round limit pick. UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet (6’1″, 220) and Tulane’s Tyjae Spears (5’11”, 195) also have their fans this year.
The running back position doesn’t even seem that weak, even compared to previous classes. This may just be a case of tipsters realizing that the NFL hasn’t priced the position the same way it did in the 2010s.
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