THR’s predictions for the 2023 Oscars in all categories Post-nominees luncheon – The Hollywood Reporter

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s Awards Editor, Scott Feinbergreflects Feinberg’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. It arrives at this ranking based on consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results from award ceremonies leading up to the Oscars, and historical of the Oscars ceremony itself.

*BEST PICTURE*

Projected finish order
1. Everything everywhere all at once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, David Ellison and Christopher McQuarrie) — podcast (Bruckheimer)
3. In the west, nothing is new (Malta Grunert)
4. The Fabelmans (Kristie Macosko Krieger, Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin and Martin McDonagh)
6. Warehouse (Todd Field, Scott Lambert and Alexandra Milchan)
7. Elvis (Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Pamela McCormick and Schuyler Weiss)
8. Avatar: The Way of the Water (James Cameron and Jon Landau)
9. triangle of sadness (Philippe Bober & Erik Hemmendorff)
ten. women who talk (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything everywhere all at once)
2. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) – podcast
3. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) — podcast coming this week
4. Field Todd (Warehouse)
5. Ruben Ostlund (triangle of sadness)

*BEST ACTOR*

Projected finish order
1. Austin Butler (Elvis)
2. Brendan Fraser (The whale)
3. Colin Farrel (The Banshees of Inisherin) – podcast
4. Bill Nighy (Life)
5. Paul Mescal (After Sun)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Projected finish order
1. Cate Blanchet (Warehouse) — podcasts 1 and 2
2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything everywhere all at once) – podcast
3. Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
4. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) – podcast
5. Ana de Armas (Blond)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Projected finish order
1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything everywhere all at once) — podcast coming this week
2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Pavement)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Projected finish order
1. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) – podcast
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything everywhere all at once)
3. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Stephanie Hsu (Everything everywhere all at once) – podcast
5. Hong Chau (The whale)

*BEST SUITABLE SCENARIO*

Projected finish order
1. In the west, nothing is new (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell)
2. women who talk (Sarah Polley)
3. Life (Kazuo Ishiguro) — podcast
4. Glass onion: a mystery at loggerheads (Rian Johnson)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie and Eric Warren Singer)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCENARIO*

Projected finish order
1. Everything everywhere all at once (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh) — podcast coming this week
3. Warehouse (Todd Field)
4. The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
5. triangle of sadness (Ruben Ostlund)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

Projected finish order
1. Pinocchio by Guillermo del Toro (Alex Bulkley, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson & Gary Ungar) — podcast 1 and 2 (del Toro)
2. turn red (Lindsey Collins & Domee Shi)
3. Marcel the shod shell (Dean Fleischer Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Joel Crawford and Mark Swift)
5. The beast from the sea (Jed Snake and Chris Williams)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM*

Projected finish order
1. Navalny (Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae and Daniel Roher)
2. fire of love (Shane Boris, Sara Dosa and Ina Fichman)
3. All the beauty and bloodshed (Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John Lyons and Laura Poitras)
4. anything that breathes (Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann and Shaunak Sen)
5. A house made of shards (Monica Hellström & Simon Lereng Wilmont)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM*

Projected finish order
1. In the west, nothing is new (Germany) — Edward Berger
2. HEY (Poland) — Jerzy Skolimowski
3. Close (Belgium) — Lukas Dhont
4. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) — Santiago Miter
5. The quiet girl (Ireland) — Colm Barrett

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*

Projected finish order
1. In the west, nothing is new (friend of James)
2. Elvis (Mandy Walker)
3. Warehouse (Florian Hoffmeister)
4. Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
5. Bardo, false chronicle of a handful of truths (Darius Khonji)

*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*

Projected finish order
1. Elvis (Catherine Martin)
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter) — podcast
3. Everything everywhere all at once (Shirley Kurata)
4. Babylon (Marie Zophres)
5. Mrs. Harris goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)

*BEST FILM EDITING*

Projected finish order
1. Everything everywhere all at once (Paul Rogers)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
3. Elvis (Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel EG Nielsen)
5. Warehouse (Monika Willi)

* BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR *

Projected finish order
1. Elvis (Jason Baird, Mark Coulier and Aldo Signoretti)
2. The whale (Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin and Adrien Carotte)
3. In the west, nothing is new (Linda Eisenhamerova & Heike Merker)
4. The Batman (Naomi Donne, Mike Fontaine and Mike Marino)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Camille Friend & Joel Harlow)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

Projected finish order
1. In the west, nothing is new (Volker Bertelmann)
2. Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
3. Everything everywhere all at once (Son Lux)
4. The Fabelmans (John Williams)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Projected finish order
1. “Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — Chandrabose & MM Keeravaani
2. “Lift me up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems
3. “Hold my hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — BloodPop & Lady Gaga — podcast 1 and 2 (Gaga)
4. “It’s a life” (Everything everywhere all at once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski — podcast (Byrne)
5. “Applause” (say it like a woman) — Diane Warren — podcasts 1, 2 and 3

*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*

Projected finish order
1. Babylon (Anthony Carlino & Florence Martin)
2. Elvis (Bev Dunn, Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy)
3. In the west, nothing is new (Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper)
4. The Fabelmans (Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara)
5. Avatar: The Way of the Water (Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole and Ben Procter)

*BEST SOUND*

Projected finish order
1. Elvis (Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson and Wayne Pashley)
2. In the west, nothing is new (Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil & Markus Stemler)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor and Mark Weingarten)
4. Avatar: The Way of the Water (Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle)
5. The Batman (William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and Mark Weingarten)

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

Projected finish order
1. Avatar: The Way of the Water (Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri and Eric Saindon)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Ryan Tudhope)
3. In the west, nothing is new (Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller and Frank Petzoid)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick and Chris White)
5. The Batman (Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon and Dominic Tuohy)

*BEST ANIMATED SHORT SHORT*

Projected finish order
1. The boy, the mole, the fox and the horse (Matthew Freud and Charlie Mackesy)
2. An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It (Lachlan Pendragon)
3. My year of dicks (Sara Gunnarsdottir & Pamela Ribbon)
4. The flying sailor (Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby)
5. ice cream vendors (Bruno Caetano & João Gonzalez)

*BEST SHORT DOCUMENTARY*

Projected finish order
1. stranger at the door (Conall Jones and Joshua Seftel)
2. The Martha Mitchell Effect (Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison)
3. How do you measure a year? (Jay Rosenblatt)
4. The Elephant Whisperers (Kartiki Gonsalves & Guneet Monga)
5. Grounding (Maxim Arbugaev & Evgenia Arbugaeva)

*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*

Projected finish order
1. Students (Alfonso Cuarón & Alice Rohrwacher) — podcast 1 and 2 (Cuarón)
2. The red suitcase (Cyrus Neshvad)
3. An Irish goodbye (Tom Berkeley and Ross White)
4. Night walk (Gaute Lid Larssen & Eirik Tveiten)
5. Ivalued (Rebecca Pruzan & Anders Walter)